On August 6, 2021, the China Machinery Industry Federation held a press conference on the economic operation situation of the machinery industry in the first half of 2021 in Beijing. At the meeting, Chen Bin, executive vice chairman of China Machinery Industry Federation, announced the economic operation of the machinery industry in the first half of 2021.
The full text of the release is now published as follows for your reference.
The pressure of stable operation is gradually showing growth confidence throughout the year-the economic operation of the machinery industry in the first half of 2021
2021 is the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan", and the overall national economic operation is showing a trend of stable recovery and sustained development. This benefited from the effective control of the domestic epidemic and the continuous release of macro policy effects. In the first half of the year, the machinery industry market demand gradually recovered, the operating environment continued to improve, foreign trade exports were better than expected, business development confidence continued to increase, and industry production remained stable. It's getting brighter. However, the impact of the sharp increase in raw material prices on the efficiency of machinery companies has begun to appear. The continuous evolution of overseas epidemics has exacerbated the complexity of the foreign trade situation. The task of quality development remains arduous.
1. Overview of machinery industry operation in the first half of the year
Affected by the low base factor of the previous year, the main economic indicators of the machinery industry showed rapid growth at the beginning of the year, and since then the growth rate has shown a downward trend month by month. As of the first half of the year, the year-on-year growth rate of the main economic indicators of the machinery industry was still at a relatively high level.
(1) The high growth rate of added value returns
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the added value of the machinery industry in the first half of the year increased by 22.3% year-on-year, which was 6.4 and 5.2 percentage points higher than that of the national industry and manufacturing industry in the same period, and was 21.2 percentage points lower than the first quarter; the two-year average growth rate was 9.8%. The machinery industry mainly involves the five major categories of national economic industries, general equipment manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, and instrumentation manufacturing in the first half of the year. The added value increased by 24.3%, 20.1%, 21.8%, and 29.4% and 19.2%, the two-year average growth rate both exceeded 8%.
(2) Product production remains stable
In the first half of this year, the production of the machinery industry continued the upward trend of the previous year, and the cumulative output of the 121 major products under monitoring maintained a year-on-year growth rate of over 94%. At the end of June, the cumulative output of 114 products increased, accounting for 94.2%; the output of 7 products decreased year-on-year, accounting for 5.8%. From the data of the current month, the proportion of products whose monthly output increased in May and June remained at about two-thirds.
In the first half of the year, the production of the main products of the machinery industry showed the following characteristics: First, the production of packaging machinery was vigorous, and the output of special packaging equipment, metal containers and other products increased exponentially. Second, after years of rapid growth in construction machinery products, the growth rate of production and sales has gradually returned, and the growth rate of products such as excavators, loaders, cement special equipment, and forklifts has slowed to about 30%. Third, the production of agricultural machinery products has gradually stabilized, and the growth rate has slowed down. The output of large, medium and small tractors increased by 57.4%, 18.5% and 27.6% respectively. Fourth, machine tool products have seen a recovery growth. The output of metal cutting machine tools, machine tool numerical control devices, metal cutting tools and other products has increased by more than 30%, and industrial robots have increased by nearly 70%. Fifth, automobile production and sales were 12.569 million and 12.891 million, up 24.2% and 25.6% year-on-year. Affected by the shortage of chips, the year-on-year decline in May and June has hindered the momentum of restorative growth. Sixth, the production of some power transmission and transformation equipment has weakened, and the output of products such as transformers and power capacitors has fallen year-on-year.
(3) Capacity utilization rate is at a relatively high level
Driven by stable production, the production capacity utilization level of major industries in the machinery industry was at a high level in the first half of the year, which was significantly higher than the same period last year. The capacity utilization rates of general equipment manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing were 80.9%, 81.3%, 76.2%, and 81.4%, respectively. Except for the automobile manufacturing industry, the capacity utilization rates of other industries were higher than those in the same period. The national average industrial capacity utilization rate. Compared with the same period of the previous year, the capacity utilization rate of the above-mentioned four industries increased by 6.9, 6.6, 9.4 and 7.7% respectively.
(4) The growth rate of benefit indicators is still at a high level
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the machinery industry achieved a cumulative operating income of 12.49 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 30.85%; realized a total profit of 801.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.99%; the growth rate of both indicators was at a relatively high level. In the first half of the year, the operating income profit rate of the machinery industry was 6.42%, an increase of 0.51 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. Compared with the national industry, the machinery industry's operating income growth rate was 2.97 percentage points higher, the total profit growth rate was 24.95 percentage points lower, and the operating income profit margin was 0.69 percentage points lower. With the rebound in the comparison base of the previous year, the growth rate of the machinery industry efficiency indicators continued to slow down. Compared with the first quarter, the growth rate of operating income and total profit dropped by 27.8 and 196.18 percentage points, respectively.
(5) The overall development of sub-sectors is improving
In the first half of the year, the 14 sub-sectors of the machinery industry performed well, and their operating income achieved a year-on-year growth of more than 10%. Among them, the robot and intelligent manufacturing, other civilian machinery, electrical appliances, and machine tool industries grew by more than 30%; total profit Both achieved a growth rate of more than 10%. Among them, the growth rate of other civil machinery industries exceeded 90%, and the machine tool industry growth rate exceeded 85%, ranking the top two. The profit growth rate of electrical appliances, robotics and intelligent manufacturing, and the automotive industry also exceeded 40%.
( 6 ) Fixed asset investment is in the recovery period
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, the, special equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, and instrument and instrument manufacturing, which were mainly involved in the machinery industry, increased by 10.6 %, 28.5 %, 24.2 % and 25.1 %, respectively, and the investment in fixed assets in automobile manufacturing decreased by 2.3 %. Investment in general equipment manufacturing and automobile manufacturing continued to grow at a negative rate of 9.3 per cent and 22.7 per cent, respectively, compared with 2019. Special equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing and instrumentation manufacturing investment increased by 12.2 %, 3 % and 24.5 %, respectively. Overall, the investment in fixed assets of machinery industry is still weak, and insufficient funds are the main factors restricting enterprise investment in the near future.
2. Highlights in the operation of the industry in the first half of the year
(1) Driven by innovation, and support industry development with new industries
In the first half of the year, the machinery industry's strategic emerging industries and related industries achieved a cumulative operating income of 9.49 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.07%, and the growth rate was 1.22 percentage points higher than the average level of the machinery industry; the total profit realized was 596.841 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.07%. 3.08 percentage points higher than the average level of the machinery industry. In terms of proportion, the strategic emerging industries of the machinery industry accounted for 75.98% of operating income in the first half of the year, 1.58 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the proportion of total profits was 74.48%, 0.88 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Strategic emerging industries are still leading and driving the recovery and development of the machinery industry.
(2) Seize the opportunity, import and export trade exceeds expectations
This benefited from the effective prevention and control of the domestic epidemic and the rapid restoration of production order. Mechanical enterprises take the initiative to seize the international market opportunities. In the first half of the year, China ' s machinery industry accumulated total imports and exports of $ 491.72 billion, an increase of 36 %. Of these, exports totalled $ 3116.6 billion, an increase of 40.3 per cent year on year, imports totalled $ 180.6 billion, an increase of 29.2 per cent year on year, and trade surpluses reached $ 131.6 billion, a record high of the same period. From the specific products, automobile parts, low voltage electrical equipment and other traditional mechanical industry advantage products export growth significantly. In the first half, exports of auto parts amounted to $ 23.7 billion, an increase of 57.35 per cent year on year. Exports of low voltage switches and control devices amounted to $ 14.936 billion, an increase of 39.53 per cent. The export amount of battery was USD 13.113 billion, an increase of 71.9 %. In addition, vehicle exports were outstanding, with exports exceeding 880,000 in the first half, up 108.49 per cent year on year. Some enterprises take various ways to actively explore the international market. For example, the new type of intelligent mine truck developed by Shanhe Intelligent successfully opened the Indonesian market, driving the total export of intelligent equipment by more than 90 %. China Unicom Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. provides users with full-process ' one-stop ' services such as product selection, transportation, customs clearance, third-party inspection and operation training. The market share of tower cranes in the Philippines jumped sharply in the first half of the year.
(3) "Dual Carbon" Target Leads Industrial Transformation
Driven by the goal of "carbon peak and carbon neutrality", the machinery industry is actively adjusting to help the transformation of energy consumption. In the first half of the year, my country's new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.215 million and 1.201 million, both a year-on-year increase of two times; cumulative sales have been the same as that of the entire year of 2019; the proportion of new energy vehicle sales increased from 5.4% at the beginning of this year to the first half of the year. 9.4%. The power generation equipment produced a total of 61,723,300 kilowatts, of which the combined production of clean energy hydropower and wind turbines produced 33,670,600 kilowatts, accounting for 54.55%, more than half, and the proportion increased by 5.21 percentage points from the previous year. At the same time, machinery companies are actively exploring opportunities in the "dual-carbon" new market to deepen the integration and development of the high-load energy industry. For example, Shanghai Electric Group and Benxi Iron and Steel Group have launched a comprehensive strategic cooperation to help build a green, smart and clean steel plant.
( 4 ) Independent innovation and new progress in major equipment development
The mechanical industry adheres to the development concept of independent innovation, and the development of major equipment has made new progress. Harbin Electric Group and Dongfang Electric Group are involved in the construction of the world 's largest and most technically difficult hydropower project - Jinsha River Baihetan Hydropower Station. The first million kilowatts of hydropower units are put into operation on safety punctuality, which has achieved a major breakthrough in China 's high-end equipment manufacturing. Dongfang Electric independently developed the first domestic F-class 50MW heavy gas turbine to achieve full load stable operation, marking a major breakthrough in China ' s independent gas turbine industry. The first domestic 30 MW gas drive compressor set of long-distance natural gas pipeline jointly developed by China Shipbuilding Group 73 Research Institute, National Petroleum and Natural Gas Pipeline Network Group West-East Gas Pipeline Branch, Harbin Steam Turbine Plant of Harbin Power Group, Shenyang Blower Group and other units has passed the acceptance, which is another significant progress in the field of energy equipment in China.
( 5 ) Digital intelligence gives new impetus to development
Due to the empowerment of digital and intelligent technologies, the machinery industry ’ s ability to provide equipment for various industries of the national economy has been continuously improved, and it has also obtained new momentum for its own development. Xugong Group unmanned cluster road machinery has been successfully applied to the first desert highway S21 Awu highway asphalt paving operation in Xinjiang, to overcome extreme operating conditions and improve road construction speed. The intelligent cleaning robot developed by Xinsong Company has been successfully applied to Gezhouba Hydropower Station, subverting the traditional human semi-mechanical cleaning mode. The driverless harvesting system is composed of unmanned wheat harvester and unmanned tractor produced by Weichai Revo Heavy Industry. The cooperative operation of wheat harvesting and field transportation is realized by mobile phone control, and the harvesting efficiency is improved. The whole line of Line 1 of Lingang New Area, the first digital track with medium traffic volume in China, which was built by Shanghai Electric Group, was opened and operated. The line takes digital magnetic label as virtual track, rubber tire tram as vehicle carrier, and combines with automatic driving technology. It has the characteristics of small investment, short construction period, high flexibility, large capacity and high reliability.
( 6 ) Integration of production and education to help personnel training
In order to improve the shortage of professional and technical talents and high-end talents faced by the current industry, industry associations and mechanical enterprises actively organize and participate in the integration of production and education, and promote the deep integration of education chain, talent chain and industrial chain. Since this year, the promulgation of the ' Talent Training Plan for the 14th Five-Year Plan of Machinery Industry ', held a high-level training workshop in urgent need of scarce talents, combined with the government departments to carry out the mechanical industry technical skills competition, organized the mechanical industry front-line workers science and technology awards, carried out the evaluation of vocational skills. At present, the industry has set up more than 40 industry-education integration and school-enterprise cooperation groups, which have played a positive role in promoting talent cultivation.
3. Difficulties and problems in industry operation
( 1 ) Raw material prices remain high and industry cost pressures rise
In the first half of this year, domestic steel, non-ferrous metals and other commodity prices continued to rise sharply. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the purchasing price index of industrial producers increased by 13.1 % year-on-year in June. Among them, the purchasing price of ferrous metal materials, non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased by 27.7 % and 26.8 % respectively, which increased significantly, resulting in a general increase in the purchasing price of raw materials in the machinery industry and an increase in the cost pressure of enterprises. The special survey of key contact enterprises in the machinery industry shows that 95 % of the surveyed enterprises reflect the rise in the price of raw material procurement since this year, and 91 % of the surveyed enterprises reflect the rise in the price of spare parts procurement since this year.
( 2 ) Product prices are low and efficiency indicators decline
According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, under the background of continuous, substantial and rapid rise in raw materials, the factory price of mechanical products has increased slightly and lags behind. In the first three months of this year, the factory price index of machinery industry was 99.2,99.1 and 99.5, respectively, which was still in a state of decline. The factory gate price index of the machinery industry did not change from negative to positive year-on-year until April, and the growth rate rose to 1.1 % in June, but it was far lower than the growth rate of the raw material purchase price index and the factory gate price index of the raw material industry over 26 % in the same period.
The difference between raw material purchase price and product sales price has affected the profit of the machinery industry. Monthly data show that gross profit growth in the machinery industry has fallen sharply, from 94.1 per cent in March to 3.7 per cent in April, to 1.99 per cent in May and to 9.84 per cent in June.
( 3 ) Difficult recovery of accounts and low turnover rate of industry funds
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the total accounts receivable of the machinery industry at the end of June was 5.52 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.72 %, accounting for nearly one-third of the total industrial accounts receivable. The special survey results show that 60 % of the surveyed enterprises ’ accounts receivable increased year-on-year in the first half, and 24 % of the enterprises increased by more than 10 %. More than sixty percent of the enterprises surveyed received bills increased year on year, and 23 % of the enterprises increased more than 10 %. Enterprises reflect the use of bills settlement customers increased significantly, resulting in their own capital turnover pressure. At the end of June, the turnover rate of current assets in the machinery industry was 1.45, which was 0.36 times lower than that of the national industry.
4. Prediction of annual operation trend of mechanical industry
In the first half of the year, the achievements of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development in China have been consolidated and expanded, and the machinery industry has also shown a steady development trend. Looking forward to the second half of the year, factors favorable to the operation and development of the machinery industry are accumulating and releasing. One is that the improvement of economic environment drives the expansion of market demand. In the context of stable and sound national economic operation, the willingness of users in the machinery industry to transform and upgrade and expand production has been significantly improved. In the first half of the year, the investment in fixed assets in the manufacturing industry increased by 19.2 %, which is better than the smooth operation of the machinery industry. The second is a stable policy environment and precise regulatory measures to boost corporate confidence. The positive effect of the support policies introduced by the state in the early stage continued to appear. A number of precise control policies introduced in the first half focused on small and medium-sized enterprises and difficult enterprises, increased the intensity of enterprise rescue, built policy resultant force, and boosted the confidence of enterprise development. 3. Speed up the development of digital intelligence under the background of normalization of epidemic prevention and control. The global epidemic situation is complex and changeable, which profoundly affects the development trend of industrial technology. The demand for digital transformation and intelligent manufacturing in the machinery industry has surged. The improvement of external demand is combined with the endogenous driving force of the transformation and development of the machinery industry to promote the machinery industry to practice the high-quality development strategy.
But it should be noted that in the second half of the mechanical industry to achieve steady operating pressure increased. The unstable and uncertain factors existing in the recent industry operation need close attention. One is the high-level drop in the production of some products. In June, the excavator output was 27,000 units, down 25.65 %. Automobile production completed 1943,000, down 16.5 %. Large and medium-sized tractors, preliminary processing machinery of agricultural products, pollution control equipment and other products have also decreased in the same month. Second, there is uncertainty in the foreign trade market. The special survey of enterprises shows that the pressure of continuing orders in overseas markets is large. Forty percent of enterprises can meet the production in the third quarter, and two percent of them can meet the annual production. In addition to the impact of epidemic fluctuation on project performance and product delivery, as well as the impact of exchange rate rise, the export situation of machinery industry in the second half is uncertain. Third, raw material prices are still high. The recent rapid upward trend in commodity prices, such as steel and non-ferrous metals, has been restrained, but prices are still at high levels of volatility and the impact on the efficiency of the machinery industry continues. In the second half of the year, mechanical enterprises will face the capital pressure caused by the high cost of raw materials and the difficulty of accounting recovery. In addition, the monthly increase in the year-on-year base also places significant pressure on the growth of key indicators in the second half.
To sum up, the economic operation of the machinery industry in 2021 will generally show a trend of first high and then low. The growth rate of the main economic indicators in the second half is significantly slower than that in the first half, but the confidence of the whole machinery industry to achieve its annual goal remains. It is expected that the value added, operating income and total profit of the machinery industry will increase by about 6 % throughout the year, and foreign trade import and export will achieve new breakthroughs.
This year is the starting year of the 14th Five-Year Plan. In the face of the continuous evolution of the global epidemic and the complex and severe internal and external economic environment, the whole industry of the machinery industry will be confident and proactive, adhere to the general tone of steady progress, actively implement the new development concept, and continuously promote the high-quality development of the machinery industry.
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